New Delhi: India’s air dominance during the 88-hour Operation Sindoor compelled Pakistan to seek a ceasefire during the May 7–10, 2025 confrontation, according to a detailed European military analysis. The study concludes that New Delhi retained escalation dominance throughout the conflict, protected its most critical assets, and denied Pakistan any decisive operational success.
The findings are detailed in Operation Sindoor: The India-Pakistan Air War (7–10 May 2025) by military analyst Adrien Fontanellaz, published by the Switzerland-based Centre d’Histoire et de Prospective Militaires (CHPM). The independent think tank, founded in 1969, reviewed the study through a panel of senior military and strategic experts.
India set the rules of escalation
The report says India controlled both the “tempo” and the “ceiling” of escalation, maintaining a clear operational edge while demonstrating credible deep-strike capability without crossing nuclear thresholds. It describes New Delhi’s actions as a carefully calibrated campaign that imposed costs on terror networks and the Pakistani military, while preventing Islamabad from dictating the course of events.
According to the analysis, the response to the Pahalgam terror attack marked a decisive break from earlier crisis-management patterns. Under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, India authorised strikes on Jaish-e-Mohammed and Lashkar-e-Taiba infrastructure deep inside Pakistan and granted the armed forces broad freedom to manage escalation.
Pakistan’s air-defence shield dismantled
After Pakistani attacks on the night of May 7–8, India activated a pre-planned second phase of Operation Sindoor. On May 8, the Indian Air Force (IAF) launched a sustained air-interdiction campaign against Pakistan’s air-defence network, targeting border radars and long-range surface-to-air missile systems.
Eight air-defence sites were hit on May 8 and four more on May 9. At least two early-warning radars at Chunian and Pasrur were visually confirmed as neutralised. Though Pakistan claimed it shot down 25 drones on May 9, the report notes that these claims failed to offset the collapse in airspace awareness.
One Indian S-400 battery reportedly caught the Pakistan Air Force off guard by engaging an Erieye or electronic warfare aircraft at extended range—nearly 300 km, according to IAF claims. Surviving radars were forced to shut down emissions to avoid detection, effectively blinding large sections of Pakistan’s air-defence network.
Precision deep strikes expose vulnerabilities
After detecting preparations for a Pakistani strike planned for the evening of May 9, Indian forces opted for a rapid pre-emptive response. Between 02:00 and 05:00 on May 10, the IAF launched BrahMos, SCALP-EG and Rampage missiles from Su-30MKIs, Jaguars and Rafales operating from within Indian airspace.
Seven targets up to 200 km inside Pakistan were struck, including one surface-to-air missile battery and five air bases. Nur Khan Air Base near Islamabad suffered damage to a command-and-control centre, while Murid Air Base—central to Pakistan’s MALE drone operations—saw drone hangars and a control facility hit.
Rahim Yar Khan Air Base sustained multiple runway impacts, and its civilian terminal—reportedly hosting a drone control centre—was also damaged. Rafiqi Air Base was targeted, though details were not disclosed. At Sukkur Air Base, a drone hangar and radar facility were hit.
Second wave tightens the noose
After identifying further Pakistani counterstrike preparations, the IAF launched a second wave around 10:00 on May 10. The targets now included manned aircraft.
Sargodha Air Base was rendered inoperative after missile strikes at runway intersections. At Jacobabad, an F-16 maintenance hangar, radar, electrical and cooling systems were hit. At Bholari Air Base, a hangar housing one or more Erieye aircraft was severely damaged.
Pakistan seeks truce
The IAF assessed that at least four or five F-16s, one Erieye aircraft, one C-130 transport aircraft, several MALE drones, two radars, two command-and-control centres and one surface-to-air missile battery were destroyed on the ground using around 50 long-range munitions.
Pakistan later claimed the Erieye at Bholari was only lightly damaged and quickly repaired, though it acknowledged the death of five personnel.
By noon on May 10, Pakistani military authorities requested a ceasefire, which India accepted. The report concludes that New Delhi achieved its political and military objectives—punishing terror infrastructure, neutralising Pakistan’s military response, and ending the conflict firmly on its own terms.
